Global property prices 全球资产价格

Searching for sanctuary 寻求庇护所

Mar 11th 2017

@(TheEconomist)[英语, 翻译, 经济学人]

Bolthole money is welcome, but comes with unintended consequences

避险资金从来都受欢迎，但是总会带来未曾遇见的后果
【Bolthole 】 noun. a hole through which an animal may bolt when pursued into its burrow or den

MANY Americans were taken aback when news broke in January that Peter Thiel, an internet billionaire and adviser to Donald Trump, had New Zealand citizenship. For five years this backer of an “America first” president had kept his Kiwi passport quiet. Then the government released details of his $10m-lakeside estate (pictured).

当互联网大亨兼Donald Trump的支持者Peter Thiel持有新西兰公民身份的新闻爆发出来，很多美国人都大吃一惊。这位“美国第一”总统政策的支持者默默的持有新西兰护照已经有五年时间。随后政府公布了他在新西兰湖岸边上估价超过1000万的持有土地（如图所示）。
【taken aback】 surprise greatly; knock someone’s socks off;
【kiwi】The Kiwi is New Zealand’s national symbol and New Zealanders refer to themselves as Kiwis.

A growing horde of rich foreigners see New Zealand as a safe haven. In 2016 overseas investors bought just 3% of all properties. But their purchases were concentrated at the expensive end of the market, which is growing fast: sales involving homes worth more than NZ$1m ($690,000) increased by 21%. That helped push prices in the country up by 13% over the past year, to lead The Economist’s latest tally of global house-price inflation (see table).

越来越多富有的外国人将新西兰看作是避险天堂。在2016年海外投资者买下了新西兰大约3%的资产。不过这些投资主要集中在飞速发展的高端市场。 总价超过一百万新西兰币（约合69万美元）的豪宅销量上涨21%。这也让新西兰整体房价较去年增长13%，占经济学人最新全球房价涨幅榜首。

New Zealand is one of several countries where the impact of foreign money on housing is under scrutiny. Prices have also risen rapidly in Australia and Canada. Central bankers fret about the dangers fickle capital flows pose to financial stability. London’s mayor has ordered a study on foreign ownership in the capital after property prices rose by 54% in four years.

新西兰是境外资本推升房价被严密监控的国家之一。房产价格同样迅速上涨的还有澳大利亚的加拿大。央行银行家担心浮躁的资本的涌入会对国家财政稳定造成危害。在房产价格四年来已经上涨54%之后，伦敦市长已经下令开展一项有关外国资本占有本国房产情况的调查。

Foreign capital also makes itself felt in America, where house prices have recovered to a new nominal high. Canadians once dominated; now they are outnumbered by Chinese citizens spending some of the $1.3trn that has left the country since autumn 2014. The National Association of Realtors estimates that Chinese investors bought 29,000 American homes for a total of $27bn in the year to March 2016. Foreign buyers focus on a handful of cities: San Francisco, Seattle, New York and Miami.

境外资本同样在美国产生影响：房价已经回到新高。加拿大人曾一度占据主流，而现在则被中国人超越。这些中国人自从2014年秋天离开中国后已经花费1.3万亿美元在购置房产上。据国家房地产经纪联盟估计，截止2016年3月中国投资者已经购置了29000套、总价270亿元的美国房产。外国买手聚集在少数城市：旧金山、西雅图、纽约以及迈阿密。
【nominal 】名义上的

In some places, foreign investment has led to a construction boom. In Miami apartments are being built in numbers not seen since the financial crisis, financed in part by Venezuelan money. Australia lets foreigners invest only in new-build properties, and they do: 26,000 new flats are due on the market in Sydney and Melbourne over the next 18 months. In London 45,000 homes have been built since 2014—the highest rate in ten years—but locals grumble many are pads for footloose foreigners.

在一些城市，外国投资带来了建设潮。由委内瑞拉主要资助的迈阿密已经开始以经济危机以来未曾想见的规模建造公寓。澳大利亚只允许外国资本投资新建房产，事实上外国资本也确实这样做了。26000套新房将会在未来18个月里出现在悉尼和墨尔本的市场上。在伦敦，从2014年起已经建成45000套房屋，这是近十年来最高的增长率。但是本地人抱怨这些房子很多都是自由自在的外国人暂居的公寓。
【pad】公寓

In many of these countries affordability looks stretched. The Economist gauges house prices against two measures: rents and income. If, over the long run, prices rise faster than the revenue a property might generate or the household earnings that service a mortgage, they may be unsustainable. By these measures house prices in Australia, Canada and New Zealand look high. In America as a whole, housing is fairly valued, but in San Francisco and Seattle it is 20% overpriced.

在很多这样的国家，人们的消费能力被消耗殆尽。经济学人通过房租和收入两个指标来估计房价。如果长期看来，房价的增长速度要比房租的增长和偿还按揭贷款的家庭收入增长要更加快速，那么这样的房价是不稳定的。以这些指标来看澳大利亚、加拿大和新西兰的房价都偏高。
从美国整体情况来看，房产的价值已经被很好的评估，但是旧金山和西雅图仍存在20%的溢价。
【gauge】estimate, guess, assess 估计

Haven investors may disregard affordability measures. Property can either be a bolthole or earn an income; in many supply-constrained cities its value may rise rapidly; even if not, the risks may be lower than at home. Investment from China has gone up as its own property market has become stretched, fears of devaluation have risen and a crackdown on corruption continues. A study in 2016 found that increased political risk in places such as Greece and Syria explained 8% of the variation in London’s house prices since 1998.

避险投资者可能会忽视自己的支付能力。房产既可以作为藏身处也可以获得收入。在很多供应紧缺的城市，房产价格可能很快飙升。即便没有很快上升，投资他国地产的风险也要小于投资本国地产。自从中国的房地产市场被大幅消耗，对贬值的恐惧和反腐的运动都促使中国人的海外投资大幅上升。在2016年的一项调查显示，自1998年以来，希腊和叙利亚等国日益增加的政治风险对伦敦房价上涨有8%的促进作用。

Policymakers may well scratch their heads. It is difficult both to make housing more affordable for a country’s own citizens and to encourage foreigners to buy. Britain has in fact tried to curb foreign enthusiasm with higher taxes, and by publishing a registry of 100,000 British homes owned by foreign companies—a potential embarrassment for some.

政策制定者对此颇为头疼。政策很难在“本国公民能够买得起”和“鼓励外来投资”之间达成平衡。英国已经尝试通过高税率来控制外国投资热情。同时还出台了让一些人恼怒不已的政策：对外国公司持有的10万套英国房屋实施登记制度。

But unintended consequences lurk. After a 15% levy on purchases from abroad was introduced in the Canadian city of Vancouver last August, the number of foreign buyers dropped by 80%. That helped dampen house-price inflation there but pushed up demand in nearby Victoria. It also deterred highly skilled immigrants. The levy will soon be amended to exclude foreigners on skilled-work visas.

但是一些未被遇见的后果逐渐浮现，在去年八月温哥华对海外购房者实行15%的税率后，购房者的数量下降了8成。高税率确实抑制了温哥华的房价泡沫，但是却推高了临近的维多利亚市的房价，也同时阻碍了高技能移民的进入。这项法案很快将会被修改，将不再适用于高技能签证的持有者。
【dampen】smother or suppress，make moist 抑制

Some foreigners will stump up even if costs rise. More Americans are house-hunting abroad, for example. By one measure, interest in boltholes in New Zealand has tripled since Mr Trump’s election.

就算购置成本上升，有人依然会坚持买下。比如，越来越多的美国人正在海外寻觅房产。按某种标准，川普上台后美国人对新西兰避难所的兴趣足足上升了两倍。
【stump up】不情愿的拿出、付出